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VOTERS: Yes, Mr. Obama, You Are Killing the Economy!

December 14th, 2011 by Fritz Wenzel

DECEMBER 14, 2011 (Reprinted from WORLDNETDAILY.COM) – For years, Barack Obama has diverted attention from his own economic decisions by blaming his predecessor, George W. Bush, for the nation’s financial woes, from deficits to debts to taxes to Medicare and Medicaid spending.

But that strategy has reached the end of its effectiveness, according to a new poll that reveals more people blame Obama for the failed state of the economy now than blame Bush.

A new poll from the public-opinion research and media consulting company Wenzel Strategies shows that 22.3 percent of registered voters say Obama is the “one person” most responsible for the nation’s continuing economic troubles.

To the same question, 19.1 percent said George W. Bush. But critical to the coming 2012 election will be the fact that of the independents, on whose votes elections often are decided, nearly 23 percent blame Obama and only 15.5 percent blame Bush. The independents put in second place members of Congress, which is half controlled by Democrats, the poll revealed, ahead of Bush.

Pollster Fritz Wenzel pointed out the scenarios that the White House is facing because of the thinking of the American public.

“Because blame of the Congress is split equally between the Democrats who lead the Senate and Republicans who lead the U.S. House, Obama’s efforts to blame Congress for all of the problems facing the country will backfire by at least 50 percent,” Wenzel said.

“Obama’s current campaign strategy could appear to be particularly selfish, having the ironic effect of killing his support among fellow Democrats in Congress, who will no doubt resent his efforts to sell them out to save his own political skin,” he added.

“At the very least, with twice as many Democratic seats than Republican seats up for grabs [in] next year’s Senate elections, this Obama strategy may well assure that Democrats lose control of the Senate, and is unlikely to result in a Democratic takeover in the U.S. House,” he said.

The poll was conducted Dec. 5-7 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.26 percentage points.

The poll showed that 22.3 percent of registered voters (35.7 percent of Republicans and 22.9 percent of independents) blame Obama as the most responsible for the current economic conditions. A little more than 19 percent blame Bush and 18.3 percent blame Congress.

The poll shows 11.5 percent blame the Democratic Congress of 2009, 11.2 percent blame Wall Street and 10.1 percent blame the U.S. House. Trailing was the Democrat-led U.S. Senate.

“Finally, he is the one now blamed more than any other for the current miserable state of the economy,” Wenzel said.

The poll revealed that those in the lowest earning bracket split the blame between Bush and Obama equally, but every other bracket pinned the bigger share of the blame on Obama.

Interestingly, those “very liberal” participants blamed Obama more (14.1 percent) than either those in the “liberal” (4.1 percent) or “moderate” (6.5 percent) categories.

To the question about whether poll participants believe the United States is going in the right direction, only 23.1 percent said yes.

“There is no way around it – these are terrible numbers. Fewer than one in four Americans feel things are headed in the right direction. And it’s been this way for many months now, which is a serious danger sign for the White House because opinions like this are like cement – the longer they remain unchanged, the more set they become in the minds of voters, and the more difficult they are to change,” Wenzel said.

“The real problem for President Obama stems from the negative view that independents hold about the current state of affairs in the U.S. Just 13 percent of independents think things are headed in the right direction – a number so far below where Obama needs it to be to win re-election that the situation may already be hopeless,” Wenzel said.

A full 74.9 percent of independents believe America is on the wrong track, trailing the 85 percent of the Republicans by only a little. Only 12 percent of independents and 7 percent of Republicans think the nation is on the right track.

Among those who described themselves as “very liberal,” more than one-third (37.3 percent) said the nation is on the wrong track. That opinion rose in every other category (liberal, moderate, conservative, very conservative).

Obama’s efforts also were rejected by every race category (white, black, Hispanic, Asian-other), men and women, and all regions of the country, including a 66 percent to 25 percent rejection in the Obama-friendly East.

This story was written by Bob Unruh of WorldNetDaily.com.

THE RON PAUL FACTOR-ORGANIZATION AND PRINCIPLE COULD YIELD PAUL VICTORY IN IOWA

December 7th, 2011 by Fritz Wenzel

DECEMBER 6,2011-NATIONAL REVIEW ONLINE: Representative Ron Paul rarely makes news, and his candidacy is frequently ignored by Beltway reporters. But headlines, his aides say, are overrated. In fact, the Texas Republican’s low-key autumn was strategic. As Paul’s competitors stumbled and sparred, he amassed a small fortune for his campaign and built a strong ground operation. And, with January fast approaching, his team is ready to surprise the political world and sweep the Iowa Caucuses.

“This was a movement when he first started running in 2008,” says Trygve Olson, a senior Paul adviser. “Now it’s turned into a highly professionalized campaign, but the energy from that last run is still there, and at the heart of what’s keeping up his momentum.”

The latest polls back up that confidence. In the influential Des Moines Register poll published over the weekend, Paul placed second. Newt Gingrich, the former House speaker, captured 25 percent of likely Iowa GOP voters, but Paul garnered 18 percent, two points ahead of Mitt Romney, who in 2008 placed second in the caucuses.

If Paul wins Iowa, the upset could upend what many politicos say is a two-man race between Gingrich and Romney. According to state GOP insiders, a Paul victory is a real possibility. In background conversations, many say Paul is much stronger than outside observers believe, with deep and wide support among a frustrated electorate. With Herman Cain’s departure from the race, operatives see Paul potentially collecting a quarter of caucus attendees.

“Ron Paul is definitely for real out here,” says Tim Albrecht, the communications director for Iowa governor Terry Branstad, who has not endorsed any GOP candidate. “He is going to get 18 percent in the caucuses no matter what. If there’s a snowstorm, he’ll probably win, since he has such dedicated, passionate supporters. The question is whether he can move higher than that.”

Paul, for his part, thinks that he can close in on Gingrich, who has seen a recent bump in both state and national polls. “We’re getting pretty close to it being within the margin of error,” Paul told CNN on Sunday. “I think we continue to do what we’re doing. We’ve had the flavors of the month up and down so far this campaign. I’d like to think of myself as the flavor of the decade.”

Indeed, Paul’s consistency, his strategists say, is integral to his strength, especially in Iowa, where GOP voters have shuffled through an array of favorites. “Iowans, after testing Bachmann, after testing Perry, after testing Cain, and now Gingrich, are realizing that Ron Paul, all along, has been their candidate,” says Fritz Wenzel, Paul’s pollster. Unlike many primary fights, “this is becoming a race about principles,” he says, “and Ron Paul has stood up for true conservative principles for decades, not just in the last month.”

But campaign strategy, of course, has also played a major role in sustaining Paul’s poll numbers. The campaign combines a strong online presence, centered on volunteer organization, with prolific fundraising. Perhaps more important, however, is Paul’s “traditional” strategy in Iowa, which combines a heavy candidate presence with constant mailings and outreach.

“He’s run the most traditional caucus campaign of the year,” Albrecht says. “Multiple mailers, multiple ads, and multiple visits. Rick Perry has run ads, but hasn’t really visited. Mitt Romney has taken the shy approach, and Newt Gingrich hasn’t been here as often.”

“We’re following the traditional model because it works,” says Drew Ivers, the campaign’s Iowa chairman. “This is the fifth time I’ve chaired an Iowa campaign, and in this state, you can’t beat grassroots politics. The caucuses are like a business meeting. You don’t just come and vote; you go to participate. You need committed supporters; we have them.”

Steve Grubbs, who recently worked as Herman Cain’s Iowa director, has seen the enthusiasm for Paul up close. “I was driving down Interstate 80 two weeks ago and saw a hitchhiker carrying a Ron Paul sign. I didn’t pick him up, but I’m sure a Paul supporter gave him a ride,” he says. “I spot them everywhere, wearing their T-shirts and carrying signs.”

You’ll also find thousands of Ron Paul backers on the web — on message boards and on social-networking sites — talking about Paul and his criticism of U.S. foreign policy and the Federal Reserve. As Paul’s team invests in the ground game, it is taking care to intertwine its above-ground legwork with that web world. And it’s paying off, his advisers say, not only through donations, but in building a cohesive network of voters. An early example of its power came in August, when Paul nearly won the Ames straw poll, finishing a close second to Michele Bachmann.

“Ron Paul’s Internet operation is to Republicans in 2012 what Barack Obama’s Internet operation was to Democrats in 2007 and 2008,” Olson says. “It’s very grassroots and national, with thousands of very active supporters who spread the message in every state. That energy is the undercurrent to what’s happening on the ground, where people are going person to person.”

Still, even with the top-tier showing in Iowa polls and recognition by Iowa operatives of their on-the-ground prowess, Paul’s advisers aren’t taking anything for granted. In coming weeks, “Ron Paul is going to be living part-time in Iowa,” says Dimitri Kesari, Paul’s deputy campaign manager. The entire focus will be on coordinating turnout and stoking enthusiasm. Over 500 college students, for example, will move to Iowa over the holidays to participate in an initiative called “Christmas Vacation with Ron Paul.”

“He’s a different kind of candidate,” Kesari acknowledges, a “highly organized outsider.” But in January, he could also be a winner. And Iowans, at least, wouldn’t be surprised.

Robert Costa is a political reporter for National Review.

Revolt! Now Even Democrats Displeased With Obama as Nominee

November 7th, 2011 by Fritz Wenzel

November 7, 2011- The newest poll about the 2012 presidential election says oone-third of Democrats and independents who lean to the left side of the field are unhappy with Barack Obama as the party’s standard-bearer and are looking for some new faces to enter the race. The startling results are from the newest WND/Wenzel Poll conducted by Wenzel Strategies.  The telephone survey was conducted Oct. 22-25, and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.

Responding to a question about how satisfied they are with Obama as the nominee, only 55 percent said they were very satisfied. Another 24 percent said they were somewhat satisfied, but that group apparently started falling away quickly, because fully one-third (35 percent) said that would “prefer that someone else enter the race” for the nomination.

It revealed some key demographics where Obama is failing to convince voters of his value.

“Among Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents, just 79 percent said they are satisfied with Barack Obama as their standard bearer in the presidential race, which is a startling finding,” said Fritz Wenzel, chief of Wenzel Strategies.

“This means the incumbent president is unable to get one of every five voters that should be solidly in his political corner. Just a little more than half – 55 percent – said they were ‘very satisfied’ with Obama,” he said.
“Obama’s problem is with independents who are inclined to support the Democratic ticket, as just 53 percent said they are satisfied with Obama,” he said. “But the news gets worse for Obama, as 35 percent said someone else should enter the primary race against Obama, including half of Democrat-leaning independents.

“And among a demographic group that should be rock solid for Obama – Democratic voters under age 30 – 59 percent said they would prefer Obama to get a challenge for his party’s nomination.”

The attitude of support for Obama was revealed in the fact that 34.5 percent of the respondents said they weren’t even sure who should challenge Obama.

The largest camp, nearly 44 percent, said Obama should be challenged by Hillary Clinton, and more than nine percent said the vice president, Joe Biden, should try to kick his boss out of office.

Other names that were suggested, mostly with only nominal support, included Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi, Andrew Cuomo, Ralph Nader, Jerry Brown and Donald Trump, who was the only name also mentioned as a desired candidate on the Republican side.

“The overwhelming choice for the role of challenger is very clear, as 44 percent said they would like to see Secretary of State Hillary Clinton enter the race,” said Wenzel. “No one [else] of a group of possible candidates won double-digit support.”

The poll revealed that among Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents, about 19 percent said they simply were dissatisfied with Obama. In what could be a significant precursor, only 22 percent of the independents who said they lean Democratic reported being very satisfied with Obama.

A strong presence of dissatisfaction also was present among white Democrats (more than 25 percent were dissatisfied with Obama) and among Asian voters, where more than 19 percent were “not at all satisfied.”

In what could be another omen for Obama, his support faltered badly among Hispanics, where nearly 41 percent said they wanted another choice on the Democratic side.

And in another segment from which Obama got great support during 2008, 59.3 percent of those under age 30 said they wanted someone else to enter the race for the Democratic nomination.

* This is a reprint of a story that was written by Bob Unruh and which appeared first at WND.com.  See the original story here.

Cain Leads GOP Field in National Poll; Romney, Paul Closest Challengers

November 1st, 2011 by Fritz Wenzel

NOVEMBER 1, 2011 – The latest Wenzel Strategies telephone survey of likely voters nationwide shows that businessman Herman Cain continues to lead among Republican primary voters nationwide, as Mitt Romney slips a bit and Ron Paul remains in the solid double-digits.  The survey, commissioned by WorldNetDaily.com, shows that nearly one in three GOP voters remains unsure whom they would support as their presidential nominee.

The national telephone survey was conducted Oct. 22-25, 2011, just before reports surfaced of allegations that Cain once sexually harrassed two underlings while serving as the head of the National Restaurant Association back in the 1990s. Cain has denied that he harrassed the women, but acknowledged that the women did make such allegations.  The survey included  731 total interviews with respondents and carries a margin of error of +/- 3.60 percentage points. The margin of error in subsets is higher.

Cain, who has cultivated an “outsider” image in debate and campaign appearances as well as advertisements, wins 25% support from Republicans, but wins 33% support among Republican-leaning independent voters.  Romney wins 21% among Republicans, but just 9% among Republican-leaning independents.

Ron Paul captures 14% support among Republicans, and 7% among independents.

There is a huge gender gap for Cain. Among men, 34% support him, but only 17% of women would vote for him.  Given these latest allegations against him, it is unlikely his numbers among women will improve. Romney is the favorite – barely – among women, winning 20% support.

Ron Paul wins 13% from men and 10% among women.

Among women, Congresswoman Michele Bachmann wins just 4%, which must be a disappointment for her campaign, given that she has gone out of her way to try to attrack their support.

Cain holds a strong lead with 30% in the western United States, but wins 19% in the east, where he ties Romney for the lead. In the east, Ron Paul is a very close third with 17% – just one point behind.  Newt Gingrich wins 16% support in the west, placing third there, and also stands in third place in his home territory of the southern U.S., where he is supported by 13%.

WND/WENZEL POLL: Palin Would Shake Up Even Democratic Party Presidential Primary

September 30th, 2011 by Fritz Wenzel

REPRINTED FROM WORLDNETDAILY.COM – SEPT. 30, 2011 – Former Alaska Governor and 2008 vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin has said the 2012 presidential election would be an out-of-the-box event.  But just what did she mean? 

Voters will eventually find out, presumably. But just in case her “out of the box” means something as surprising as her challenging Barack Obama in a Democratic Party presidential primary, Fritz Wenzel of Wenzel Strategies included that scenario in his  newest poll on the 2012 presidential election.

The telephone survey was conducted Sept. 23-27 and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.91 percentage points.

The results were startling.

“Just 3 percent of Republicans and 17 percent of independents said they planned to vote in their state’s Democratic Party primary or caucus,” explained Wenzel, “but if you add Sarah Palin to the equation, something interesting occurs. Asked whether they would participate in the Democratic Party’s primary or caucus in their state if Sarah Palin were to enter the Democratic Party’s race for the presidential nomination against Obama, the numbers increased substantially. Republican participation jumped from 3 percent to 22 percent, and independent voter participation jumped from 17 percent to 31 percent.”

He said in a head-to-head matchup among Democratic Party voters, Palin still draws support away from Obama.

“The prospective race is particularly interesting among independents, with Obama winning 50-percent support compared to 46-percent support for Palin,” he said.

He called Palin “an enigma” during this presidential election cycle for her “campaign” trips that aren’t campaign trips and her vague references to the “out-of-the-box” election.

“Because it is unknown and perhaps very unlikely that Palin would run for the Democratic Party nomination, this survey data mainly points to the dramatic weakness of Obama even among voters that should be his political base of support. Even among progressives, Obama only wins 74 percent support, perhaps an expression of anger at Obama for what the left has seen as his failures to accomplish their agenda,” Wenzel said.

He asked, “If Sarah Palin were to register as a Democrat and run against Barack Obama for the party’s nomination for president in your state’s primary election or caucus, would you participate in that election or caucus, even if it required you to temporarily change your voter registration to participate in the Democratic election?”

One in five Republicans would change their registration to participate, as would nearly one in three independents.

He also asked, “If the race for the Democratic Party nomination was today and the candidates were Barack Obama and Sarah Palin, for whom would you vote?”

Some 84 percent of the Democrats said definitely for Obama, and nearly 8 percent said definitely for Palin. On point were the results from independents, where 45 percent said they would vote for Obama and 41 percent said for Palin – in the Democratic primary.

Wenzel: Obama In Trouble In Ohio

August 6th, 2011 by Fritz Wenzel

Aug. 15, 2011 – By Kate Harvard-THE WEEKLY STANDARD - In 2008, Barack Obama won nine states that George W. Bush won in 2004. According to the latest polls and the assessments of seasoned observers, it is going to be tough for him to win them again. Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Indiana, North Carolina, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and Iowa are the red states that turned blue in 2008.

Obama has fallen behind in some of them and is running about even with Republicans in others. Where Obama is ahead, his lead is shrinking, and where he’s matched up against lesser-known GOP hopefuls, his small leads are hardly a show of strength. His approval ratings are sinking everywhere: Even where he beats a Republican challenger, voters in these states don’t like the job he’s doing.

If the president wins every state he won last time save these nine, he will be 24 electoral votes short of the 270 he needs to win a second term. Here’s the outlook 15 months before the 2012 election:

n Obama’s recent numbers in the key state of Florida (29 electoral votes) suggest he’ll have a hard time here. According to a Sunshine State News poll in July, only 38 percent of Floridians approve of the job the president is doing, and 54 percent disapprove. 

n Ohio (18 electoral votes) would be next on the list of “must-wins”—but it’s not locked up. A Quinnipiac poll from July shows Obama’s disapproval among Ohio voters at 50 percent, while only 46 percent approve. Of the state’s independent bloc, only 40 percent say that Obama deserves reelection.

Fritz Wenzel, a Republican pollster from the state, says that Ohioans believed Obama when he ran as a moderate and are disappointed that his policies turned out to be on the left. “Governor Ted Strickland .  .  . turned left as soon as he was elected, [and] voters kicked him to the curb in 2010,” Wenzel says.

The Quinnipiac poll still shows Obama beating Romney by 4 points, and both Bachmann and Perry by more than 10 points. But a record 58 percent of Ohioans disapprove of the president’s handling of the economy. Ohio senator Rob Portman says that a candidate who challenges the president on jobs and the economy can win his state.

n Obama will have an even tougher job in Virginia (13 electoral votes). The state, which Obama won by 6 points in 2008, is now split 48 percent to 48 percent on his performance in office, with 4 percent undecided. That’s good news for Republicans in a state where they have typically won presidential elections.

n North Carolina (15 electoral votes) and Indiana (11 electoral votes) also appear unlikely to go blue again. In 2008, Obama won them by scant margins, 0.4 points and 0.9 points, respectively, and now those leads have disappeared. The latest polls show Obama flat out losing in both. 

In Indiana, Obama loses to an unnamed Republican by double digits, getting 35 percent to 46 percent, according to a recent Bellwether poll. Obama is doing poorly because Hoosiers are used to “fiscal prudence” at the state level, says Ryan Streeter of ConservativeHome USA. “Governor Mitch Daniels is popular in Indiana because he has put the state’s budget in order. .  .  . Obama has made America’s fiscal condition worse and alienated ordinary people along the way.”

In North Carolina, a Civitas poll has Rick Perry winning by 3 points. “Obama is falling like a rock” in the state, says Marc Rotterman, a Republican consultant. Rotterman is sure that “2008 was an aberration. .  .  .  [The president] will not carry North Carolina in 2012.”

n Out west, Romney and Obama are practically tied. In Nevada (6 electoral votes), Obama leads Romney by a single point, 47-46 percent, according to the left-leaning firm Public Policy Polling. While this is good news for the president (in April the same poll showed Obama losing to Romney by 3 points), only 47 percent of the state’s voters approve of the president’s work. The right challenger could make headway.

n In New Mexico (5 electoral votes), Obama’s approval rating is at 50 percent, a decline of 5 points since February—and among independents, the decline is 11 points. He carried the state by 15 points in 2008, but “Barack Obama will not sell as well” in 2012, says Allen Weh, former New Mexico Republican state chairman. While the race is still uncertain, Weh asserts that Obama will be “running uphill” to retake the state in 2012. 

n And speaking of hills, Obama will “have a hard time” winning over the Rocky Mountain region, says Colorado governor John Hickenlooper, a Democrat.

Republican political consultant Walt Klein noted that Colorado (9 electoral votes) is where Obama signed the stimulus into law back in 2009, a fact Obama would probably like Coloradans to forget. They won’t, Klein said, because, as everywhere else, the economy is weak and unemployment is high.

Richard Wadhams, former state chairman of the Republican party, says Colorado will be “very competitive” in 2012. “Colorado voters go a third Republican, a third Democrat, and a third unaffiliated, and that third swings heavily.”

The swinging third consists largely of “socially liberal, fiscally conservative women in the Denver suburbs,” Wadhams says. These women “will vote for a Republican they disagree with on social issues if they think he’s prioritizing economic and fiscal issues.”

Consultants across these states agree: Make the election about money, and Obama’s on the ropes. But the president’s problems aren’t limited to the economy. There’s also an enthusiasm deficit among Democrats.

n In Iowa (6 electoral votes), voters are “unhappy,” said David Yepsen, director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute. “I’ve talked to a number of people on the left who say they worked for Obama in the caucuses but feel let down. .  .  . Iowa’s a pretty evenly balanced state and it doesn’t take much to tip it,” Yepsen said.

He added that Republicans will have “one hell of an organizational edge out of their organizing for the [Iowa] caucuses. They’ll have superior lists, good workers on the ground, and the networks identified to go dig out marginal supporters all over the state. Meanwhile, Democrats are sitting around in a funk.”

It’s clear the Republican presidential candidate has a reasonable chance to win in 2012. That doesn’t mean he or she will. The campaign—and especially the candidate—could make all the difference.

Kate Havard is an intern at The Weekly Standard.

Ron Paul Campaign Scoops Up Major GOP Pollster

June 28th, 2011 by Fritz Wenzel

JUNE 28, 2011 – Lake Jackson, Texas – (Businesswire) – The campaign of 2012 Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul has scored a major coup with the hiring on of heavyweight GOP pollster Fritz Wenzel, and his polling firm Wenzel Strategies, to run its polling operations.

“I am very proud and excited to be a part of the Ron Paul presidential team,” Wenzel said. “He has long stood strong for the core principles that have made out country great and have made the Republican Party great when they heeded them.”

“What makes Ron Paul such a strong candidate is his willingness to stand on principle, which has attracted more people to his message, to the pont that the other candidates are now taking up his issues. At a time when our country is in great peril, voters are looking for a candidate who will turn to and rely on the wisdom of the Constitution, and there is no better student of that document than Ron Paul,” Wenzel continued.

About Wenzel Strategies:

Wenzel Strategies is an Ohio-based firm headed by Fritz Wenzel. The firm has political, media, business, government, and non-profit clients nationwide. In the 2010 election cycle, it polled dozens of important races across the country, including for the successful Rand Paul campaign for U.S. Senate from Kentucky. It has also polled several races for Jim DeMint’s Senate Conservatives Fund and various congressional races. In addition to polling, Wenzel Strategies provides clients with strategic communications consultation.

For more information on Congressman Ron Paul’s Presidential Campaign visit www.RonPaul2012.com.

Americans believe Obama destroying their freedoms

June 27th, 2011 by Fritz Wenzel

June 27, 2011 – REPRINTED – By Bob Unruh of WorldNetDaily.comThe WND Freedom Index has taken a nosedive, with more than two in three Americans – including significant numbers of Democrats – expressing alarm that Barack Obama’s tenure in office is costing them their freedoms, and pollster Fritz Wenzel says it might be too late for him recover in time for the 2012 election.

Noting that the Freedom Index plunged to 45.9, its lowest mark in the two years it’s been monitored, Wenzel of Wenzel Strategies said:

“It will be very difficult to dramatically improve these now negative perceptions that Americans hold toward their government because with every downward movement in this index, people lose just a little more trust in their government. It is hard to see anything on the horizon that government leaders – especially President Obama – can use to rebuild that bond, especially before November 2012.”

His poll, conducted by telephone June 16-19, carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.85 percentage points.

It found that the Freedom Index fell to 45.9, down from 46.6 just one quarter ago, and a stunning 11-plus full points below its inaugural assessment in June 2009.

The WND Freedom Index has taken a nosedive, with more than two in three Americans – including significant numbers of Democrats – expressing alarm that Barack Obama’s tenure in office is costing them their freedoms, and pollster Fritz Wenzel says it might be too late for him recover in time for the 2012 election.

Noting that the Freedom Index plunged to 45.9, its lowest mark in the two years it’s been monitored, Wenzel of Wenzel Strategies said:

“It will be very difficult to dramatically improve these now negative perceptions that Americans hold toward their government because with every downward movement in this index, people lose just a little more trust in their government. It is hard to see anything on the horizon that government leaders – especially President Obama – can use to rebuild that bond, especially before November 2012.”

His poll, conducted by telephone June 16-19, carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.85 percentage points.

It found that the Freedom Index fell to 45.9, down from 46.6 just one quarter ago, and a stunning 11-plus full points below its inaugural assessment in June 2009.

“The survey shows men are much more concerned about this than are women, as 67 percent of men said they believe Obama has taken away freedoms.”

He continued, “The second question on which public opinion is particularly negative is one regarding government’s use of technology – everything from electronic medical records to red light traffic cameras – to intrude into the private lives of Americans. Respondents give this individual question a rating of 29.7 on a 100-point scale. This indicates there is great negativity about government’s use of technology to invade the everyday lives of Americans.”

The index is based on a 100-point scale that uses poll respondent answers to 10 questions regarding different aspects of freedom in America, including freedom of speech, association, worship and assembly. A “50″ is even, with ratings above that point signaling positive feelings about freedoms and ratings below that point signaling negative feelings.

Wenzel said the issue for Democrats is that the Freedom Index “measures, now on a quarterly basis – deeply held public perceptions about their freedoms and the government’s impact on them. These are not whimsical considerations that change with the seasons, which is why the rating measures sentiment to the tenth of a percentage point and why it moves only slightly.”

Another poll just a few weeks ago foreshadowed Wenzel’s latest results, finding that Americans essentially have repudiated establishment Washington and could very well demand a U.S. constitutional amendment requiring an annual balanced budget, because they have lost trust in Congress and the White House.

In that poll of voters, 47.1 percent said Washington is giving them a “poor” value for their money, and another 27.6 percent said the value is “only fair.” The results cut across demographics, with Democrats having the most optimistic outlook. But even there, nearly 59 percent said the federal government’s value was “only fair” or “poor.”

Among the GOP respondents, almost 89 percent could not agree to rating the government’s value as excellent or good, and among independents the figure was more than 77 percent.

The Freedom Index slipped over its first few months and dropped off its first cliff, from 53.6 in November 2009 to 46.4 in December at the time Obama was enacting his nationwide health care takeover as law.

“Such a plunge foretold of the 2010 electoral bloodbath Democrats suffered in congressional elections, and it portends bad news for Democrats in 2012,” Wenzel said.

While the index continued to ebb and flow in the December 2009 range until this quarter, its sudden drop is revealing, especially about what Democrats believe.

For example, to the question, “Do you believe that, under the Obama administration, America has seen an increase or decrease in personal freedom?” more than 44 percent of Democrats – Obama’s own party – said they have seen a decrease. For Republicans it was 85 percent and among independents it was some 72 percent.

Almost 32 percent of Americans feel not very free or not at all free to speak their thoughts “without fear of punishment, penalty, or retribution,” and an even higher 35 percent said they were concerned by retaliation over those with whom they choose to associate.

Almost 28 percent, including one in three Republicans and almost the same percentage of independents, said they fear being punished or investigated for the way they choose to worship.

One in five even had concerns about discussing their personal potlicial and religious beliefs in a public place such as a restaurant or on a bus or train, and almost 27 percent said they routinely self-censor thoughts they have about a given subject because of fear of harm, punishment, social rejection or some other penalty.

Wenzel said that they believe government is taking over individuals’ freedoms and spying on them electronically is very serious.

“Three out of four respondents – fully 75 percent – said they believe government is using technology to intrude on the private lives of citizens,” he said. “And while majorities of all political persuasions feel the intrusion, Democrats are significantly less bothered by it than are Republicans,” he said. “While 22 percent of Democrats say there is no intrusion by the government, only 9 percent of Republicans agree. At the other end of the scale, 48 percent of Republicans say there is a great deal of intrusion.”

Even 30 percent of the Democrats agree, he noted.

Palin: The First Post-Media Candidate

June 7th, 2011 by Fritz Wenzel

JUNE 3, 2011 – Sarah Palin is the first post-media candidate.

Well, not quite yet, since she isn’t an official candidate for the Republican nomination for President. And who knows, she may never get into the race. But what she has done with her recent bus tour up the east coast is to show other candidates, and Republicans in general, how to deal with the mainstream media.

Ignore them. Make them work for their stories. Stay focused on your message and ridicule their whining.

A couple of recent polls of likely voting Republicans shows Palin’s public is enjoying the show. Her popularity has not faded – she is in the top tier with Mitt Romney. 

The undisciplined, pampered political media following her on her bus trip up the coast have complained long and loud about how she is not giving them her schedule, holding press avails, and is even giving them the slip on occasional. So detached from reality are they that at least one reporter has complained bitterly that she is putting them in physical danger and another has claimed she may be breaking federal law – by riding in a bus which sports an American flag.

The mainstream media, long in decline and smarting from its obvious bias in favor of Barack Obama before, during, and after his 2008 election as President, has been reduced to playing the role of annoying and unruly children on a long car trip.

“Are we there yet? Are we there yet? Are we there yet?”

No, we are not there yet, Palin’s trip has exclaimed loudly. As she has made clear, her trip won’t end until Obama is defeated in 2012, whether or not she is the one who takes him down. All the while, vast swaths of the American public – at least those who are paying attention – are enjoying her treatment of these pampered Beltway boys and girls.

It’s almost as if those reporters are the last ones to learn their industry is fading - fast. As long as their editors continue to approve their expense reports for excursions to cover Palin and other such adventures, they may never learn the truth. That truth is, according to my polling and the polling of other national survey organizations, that public confidence in the traditional news outlets is at an all-time low, and trust of these reporters is also near the bottom of the barrel.

Try as they might to derail and distract her, Palin isn’t affected. She has shown this gaggle – who collectively believe they are the ones who should choose the nominees and the President, all for the good of the country – to be nothing more than a moveable feast of media mendacity. When she is done with them, she will toss them aside and communicate directly with her supporters.

This is exactly how Republicans should run their media operations. Those GOPers who have in the past pandered to the media – John McCain springs immediately to mind – ultimately end up taking positions on key issues that are designed to please the media, not conservative voters. Voters fade to the background as invitations to all the best Washington cocktail parties become the priority. What you get from such behavior is a $14.4 trillion debt, gas at $4 per gallon, and unemployment heading toward double-digits. What you get in a nation in decline.

Polls show people understand that. Less than one in three Americans now says the country is headed in the right direction. Obama’s job approval, while it has improved slightly in the last month, is still in a very bad place.

But that is all lost on most mainstream political reporters. The efforts to spin the dramatically bad news about the American economy are now so laughable that even the casual observer notices. Reporters have blamed Bush, the Republicans in Congress, and this past week even the American unemployed workers for not trying hard enough to find work. But they never blame Obama. Palin has used the weakness of the traditional media to her tremendous advantage.

In the end, the old media will die. When the smoke clears and a new media paradigm prevails, it will be Palin leading the way.

WS Poll: Obama Job Approval Dips to 39%

April 28th, 2011 by Fritz Wenzel

APRIL 28, 2011 - Fewer than four in 10 registered voters in America believe President Barack Obama is doing either an excellent or good job leading the nation, and two out of three say the U.S. is heading in the wrong direction, a new Wenzel Strategies survey shows.

Just 39% gave Obama positive job approval marks, while 59% gave him negative marks, the national telephone poll reveals. Two percent said they were unsure on the question.

Even among Democrats, Obama shows weakness on the question, as 66% of Dems give him positive marks and 32% give him negative ratings. Republicans, not surprisingly, are overwhelmingly negative – just 15% say he is doing either an excellent or good job, while 83% of GOPers gave him negative marks.

The President is not scoring many points among political independents, the survey shows. While 38% give him positive marks for his work, 59% of independents give him negative marks.

The weakness of Obama on this comes into dramatic relief when comparing those who say he is doing an “excellent” job (the most positive response available to respondents) against those who say he is doing a “poor” job (the most negative response available to respondents). Just 20% say Obama is doing an excellent job, while more than twice as many – 41% – say he is doing a poor job.

Those in the western U.S. were most generous to Obama, where 48% gave him positive marks. The worst ratings came from the South, where just 31% gave him positive marks for the job he is doing. In the Midwest, 39% gave him positive marks, as did 40% of those in the East.

On a related note, just 21% said they think the country as a whole is headed in the right direction, while 67% said the nation is off on the wrong track. Another 12% said they were unsure. Even among Democrats, just 36% said they think things are headed in the right direction, as did 7% of Republicans and 19% of political independents.

“The percentage of Americans who are downcast about the direction of the nation has grown significantly in recent weeks, which is likely related to the on-going budget debate in Washington and the spike in gasoline prices,” said Pollster Fritz Wenzel. “These are two issues that have a decidedly negative cast to them, and they are both beyond the control of the average American, so it is easy to be discouraged about both of them. Americans don’t like the feeling that they have no control over a situation. This is what was so frustrating to many as they watched Congress vote last year to pass the Obama health care reform bill. Public sentiment ran heavily against that bill, yet Congress passed it and Obama signed it into law. When Americans finally got a chance to respond to that – at the ballot box last Novemeber, they registered a strong rebuke to Washington by tossing Democrats out of power. No one knows how long the current problems in Washington and at the pump will continue, but right now Americans are very discouraged, this latest polling shows.”

Wenzel Strategies conducted a national telephone survey of 903 registered voters April 19-21, 2011. The poll carries a margin of error of +/- 3.23 percentage points.

Click here for a summary of the Obama Job Approval-Right Track data