We here at Wenzel Strategies conduct high-quality survey research. We know that polling in the political arena means our work is going to show winners and losers, and that there are many careers at stake. People will take pot-shots at us. But such complaints are like cursing the mirror that reflects something you don’t want to see. It’s just heartening to come across the Jim Ellis Insights website and discover some real, old-fashioned reliable reporting.

Here is the official Wenzel Strategies response to the Lugar campaign:

The survey, conducted April 24-25, 2012, was commissioned by Citizens United Political Victory Fund, which released it this morning.

More from the Washington Post story:

The poll, conducted by GOP pollster Fritz Wenzel for Mourdock-supporting group Citizens United, shows Mourdock at 44 percent and Lugar at 39 percent. The poll has a margin of error of about 4 percent.

Not surprisingly, the poll shows Mourdock relying heavily on tea party conservatives, winning their vote by a margin of 63 percent to 24 percent. Those voters comprised just more than one-third of the polls respondents.

Lugar, meanwhile, leads among moderates 61 percent to 27 percent.

The poll also shows Lugar’s favorability among Republican primary voters dropping below 50 percent — to 44 percent — for the first time. His unfavorable rating has risen as well, but the polling memorandum doesn’t say precisely what it is.

The poll is part of what seems to be a steady trend in Mourdock’s favor.

A McLaughlin poll conducted last week for Mourdock’s campaign showed him up by one point. Previous polls — including another Wenzel poll for Citizen United — had showed Lugar leading by six or seven points.

But things could still change. One in four voters say they are very open to changing their minds, and only 51 percent say they are fully decided.

The primary is now less than two weeks away, on May 8.

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Read the entire story here.

The survey of 997 respondents shows a different result than did another survey conducted by a New England university.  The difference in the polling samples was huge – in that the Wenzel Strategies survey included only the likliest of voters, and the university survey used a sample of only registered voters.  Fritz Wenzel, president of Wenzel Strategies, said the difference in the voting characteristics of these polling samples is as significant as the difference between night and day.

“After the massive voter registration drives of the last 15 years or so, the American body of registered voters is so watered down as to include almost every adult.  In fact, in some counties around the nation, there are actually more registered voters than there are voting age residents.  The margin of error spikes significantly in registered voter polls when you are talking about measuring political attitudes, especially when you start talking about primary elections, which are notorious in their low voter turnout.  So we just don’t even use a registered voter sample for political polling anymore. It is next to meaningless,” Wenzel said.

“Our sample for the Pennsylvania poll included only those who were very likely to vote in the primary.  We determined this both by respondents self-identifying their intentions, but also by using a sample that included only those who had a proven primary election voting history,” Wenzel added.

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Here is the link to the story in Politico:

Politico’s David Cantanese captures the essence of the survey results here:

As Cantanese mentions, the more conservative the voter, the more likely they are to support Pantano.  He is also much better known around the district, and voters have an overwhelmingly positive opinion of him overall.

The results are from the public opinion research and media consulting firm Wenzel Strategies of Ohio.  The poll was conducted Dec. 5-7 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.26 percentage points.

 It shows 80 percent of Republicans, 51 percent of independents and 13.4 percent of Democrats “definitely” will vote for someone other than Obama. Another 21 percent of independents, 12.2 percent of Republicans and 8.8 percent of Democrats are “considering someone new.”

The bottom line leaves only 38.5 percent of the respondents who will “definitely” vote for Obama again.

The results show that of all registered voters, 44.4 percent rate Obama’s job performance as “poor” and another 13.2 percent give him an “only fair” mark. But for independents, those figures are 49.8 percent for a “poor” grade and 15.1 percent for “only fair.”

That makes a huge difference in the poll where Democrats, as expected, rated Obama “excellent” (37.8 percent) and “good” (34.8 percent) while Republicans largely put him in the “poor” category (74.9 percent).

The results are clear: 47.8 percent of all voters will “definitely vote for someone else and 13.7 percent are considering that.

Fritz Wenzel, president of Wenzel Strategies, noted that the poll doesn’t even identify an opponent.

“Another way to look at this is that almost half the electorate plan to vote against Obama, regardless of who is running against him. Presidential re-election campaigns are almost always a referendum on their performance, so this is nothing new, but these numbers are really bad,” he said.

“Another wrinkle in the equation is Obama’s bad job approval numbers, as just 40 percent give him positive marks for his job as president. We have already seen the outline of his re-election campaign themes, and they are decidedly negative.

“Like Truman, he apparently will try to run against Congress. But running a campaign with such a negative theme normally requires that the candidate have at least a fairly positive rating himself – something Obama currently lacks. Taken together, these polling numbers spell a very, very bleak outlook for re-election,” Wenzel said.

Obama’s highest remaining support levels come from women, although women who definitely support him barely outnumber those definitely supporting someone else, 44.6 percent to 43.7 percent. Then there are the 11.7 percent who are considering someone new.

Women also gave Obama better marks for his tenure in the Oval Office, with 46 percent ranking him good or excellent. For men, those categories totaled just 33 percent.

That he’s divided the country racially also was apparent. Seventy-five percent of blacks rate Obama good or excellent, while only 32 percent of whites do.

The poll also captured the public’s view of Congress, whose members ranked even lower than Obama. More than 64 percent of voters – including 56 percent of Democrats, 67 percent of Republicans and an overwhelming 71 percent of independents – said Congress is doing “poor.”

“Only fair” captured another 16.4 percent of the voters, and excluding those who remained unsure, not even 1 in 10 ranked Congress’ work “good” or “excellent.”

“It is true that Obama’s approval numbers are much better than Congress, but in running against Congress, he risks giving his Republican opponent an opening to rise above that political food fight and inspire voters to make a change,” Wenzel said.

“In other words, if the Republican presidential candidate can successfully triangulate between Obama and Congress, that candidate could benefit as the only positive alternative in a sea of negativity. Remember that the American electorate has not changed. They still hunger for a version of the hope and change that Obama offered four years ago, but this time they will demand substance behind the promises,” he said.

“If there is any good news in this survey for Obama, it would be that it appears his political base is coming back to him. Among the very liberal, or progressive, Americans, about four out of five give him positive job marks. But among mainline liberals, that number falls to two out of three. While these voters might not vote for the Republican challenger for president, they are clearly lacking enthusiasm toward Obama and may well be harder to turn out at the polls next November,” Wenzel said.

(This story was written by Bob Unruh of WorldNetDaily.com)

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Members of Citizens for Parks, Paths, and Trails, a new ballot initiative committee to support the March levy attempt, presented the districts board with a plan for the upcoming campaign.

If passed, the district’s five-year, 0.25-mill levy would cost the owner of a $100,000 home $7.65 per year.

The group was formed to organize, fund and promote the district’s levy campaign, said Rick Platt, president and CEO of the Heath-Newark-Licking County Port Authority and vice chairman of the committee.

Led by Rob Montagnese, president and CEO of Licking Memorial Health Systems, the committee includes representatives from Park National Bank and First Federal Savings.

“This is something that’s been brewing for a while,” Platt said. “This committee felt like it’s now time to come together and support this ballot issue.”

The committee’s first task was to determine how people viewed the district.

People for Parks, a political action committee that has supported the district for many years, donated money to Citizens for Parks, Paths and Trails, which the group used to commission a phone survey, said Bethany Lewis, a communications specialist for Park National Bank and a member of the committee.

The survey, conducted by Wenzel Strategies, found 86 percent of the 804 voters polled described parks, bike paths and trails as important assets. The survey also found 58 percent of the voters surveyed said they would support the levy attempt, Platt said.

“If the election were held when this poll was taken, this ballot issue (would be) a winner,” Platt told the board.

But encouraging survey results don’t mean the committee can take it easy, Platt said. They need to have a strong message.

The committee’s message will stress the importance of the levy to sustain the parks, trails and paths in Licking County, Lewis said. If it passes, it will help the district perform needed maintenance, restore programing and make future improvements, she said.

“The challenge is to connect what the district provides with the concepts of quality of life and health,” she said. “If we can make this connection, the votes will come.”

The best way to spread this message is to educate the public, she said. The committee has redesigned the district’s logo and website and is working on a brochure about the campaign.

Members of the committee will reach out to the public to talk about the district and the levy.

“The more information people get, the more favorable they will be,” she said.

With early voting starting at the end of January, the campaign needs to move quickly, Platt said. The committee will need help from voters and special interest groups to make the campaign a success.

“If people value parks, paths and trails, then it’s time to support it with this ballot issue,” he said.

Park board member Ed Bohren said he was encouraged by the survey results and was grateful to have the committee leading the levy campaign.

“It is exciting to have leaders in the community step up and support a park system that has so much potential to be great,” he said.

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But a new poll indicates that more Americans by a significant margin believe the tea party will have a bigger and longer impact on the nation.

The poll by public-opinion research and media consulting company Wenzel Strategies. was conducted Dec. 5-7 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.26 percentage points.

“The tea party political movement that sprang up during the two years of the Obama administration is seen in a more positive light than the recently formed left-leaning Occupy Wall Street movement and is more likely to have a long-term impact on the American political landscape,” said an analysis by Fritz Wenzel, chief of Wenzel Strategies.

“Nearly half – 46 percent – said they think the tea party is more likely to have a long-term impact on American politics, compared to 28 percent who said the Occupy Wall Street movement will be the group that will make a lasting mark,” he said.

“Not surprisingly, Democrats were more likely to think the Occupy movement will be more impactful, while Republicans think the tea party is more likely to influence U.S. politics. But among independents, the tea party is seen as a much more influential movement, as 48 percent of independents think the tea party will be more important, compared to 29 percent who predicted the Occupy movement would play that role,” Wenzel said.

“While women were nearly evenly split over which group will be more influential over the long haul, twice as many men said they think the tea party will have the staying power as said the Occupy movement would be more influential,” Wenzel’s analysis continued.

“The tea party is seen as a much more positive influence on the country, compared to the Occupy movement. While 55 percent said they see the tea party as positive and healthy for America, just 40 percent said the same thing about the Occupy movement.”

He said the tea party also won higher favorability marks from adults nationwide, as 46 percent said they have a favorable opinion of the overall TEA Party movement, compared to 37 percent who said they held a favorable opinion of the Occupy movement.

“If these two movements end up clashing in next year’s elections, this new survey indicates the conservative TEA Party group will win the day, given their higher level of favorability and support,” Wenzel said.

“It also helps that local TEA Party movements never disrupted community life in many city centers across the country, and never left tons of filth spread across public and private meeting areas. And the TEA Party group never faced the problems with theft, drug use, sex crimes, police clashes and even death that have come to mark the Occupy movement,” he said.

The poll showed that Democrats and Republicans were virtually inverted in their responses to questions relating to the two movements. For example, on the question of whether the tea party was a spontaneous development, or whether the events were “organized by Big Business,” Democrats voted 51.8 percent to 26.4 percent for being organized by Big Business. Members of the GOP, however, voted 55.6 percent to 28.6 percent for being spontaneous.

The difference in most results came from independents, who on that question said by a 42 percent to 37 percent margin that the events were spontaneous.

Similar results were reported on other questions on the issue, but the impact of the independents was greater on some questions. On the question of the impact on American politics, for example, 48 percent of independents picked the tea party, while 29 percent picked Occupy.

(This story written by Robert Unruh of WorldNetDaily.com)