Half of Key Voters Rate Obama “Poor”

DECEMBER 18, 2011 – (Reprinted from WorldNetDaily.com) – Nearly half of registered independent voters rate Barack Obama’s performance in the White House as “poor,” and they are abandoning him in droves in the run-up to the 2012 election, according to a new poll.

The results are from the public opinion research and media consulting firm Wenzel Strategies of Ohio.  The poll was conducted Dec. 5-7 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.26 percentage points.

 It shows 80 percent of Republicans, 51 percent of independents and 13.4 percent of Democrats “definitely” will vote for someone other than Obama. Another 21 percent of independents, 12.2 percent of Republicans and 8.8 percent of Democrats are “considering someone new.”

The bottom line leaves only 38.5 percent of the respondents who will “definitely” vote for Obama again.

The results show that of all registered voters, 44.4 percent rate Obama’s job performance as “poor” and another 13.2 percent give him an “only fair” mark. But for independents, those figures are 49.8 percent for a “poor” grade and 15.1 percent for “only fair.”

That makes a huge difference in the poll where Democrats, as expected, rated Obama “excellent” (37.8 percent) and “good” (34.8 percent) while Republicans largely put him in the “poor” category (74.9 percent).

The results are clear: 47.8 percent of all voters will “definitely vote for someone else and 13.7 percent are considering that.

Fritz Wenzel, president of Wenzel Strategies, noted that the poll doesn’t even identify an opponent.

“Another way to look at this is that almost half the electorate plan to vote against Obama, regardless of who is running against him. Presidential re-election campaigns are almost always a referendum on their performance, so this is nothing new, but these numbers are really bad,” he said.

“Another wrinkle in the equation is Obama’s bad job approval numbers, as just 40 percent give him positive marks for his job as president. We have already seen the outline of his re-election campaign themes, and they are decidedly negative.

“Like Truman, he apparently will try to run against Congress. But running a campaign with such a negative theme normally requires that the candidate have at least a fairly positive rating himself – something Obama currently lacks. Taken together, these polling numbers spell a very, very bleak outlook for re-election,” Wenzel said.

Obama’s highest remaining support levels come from women, although women who definitely support him barely outnumber those definitely supporting someone else, 44.6 percent to 43.7 percent. Then there are the 11.7 percent who are considering someone new.

Women also gave Obama better marks for his tenure in the Oval Office, with 46 percent ranking him good or excellent. For men, those categories totaled just 33 percent.

That he’s divided the country racially also was apparent. Seventy-five percent of blacks rate Obama good or excellent, while only 32 percent of whites do.

The poll also captured the public’s view of Congress, whose members ranked even lower than Obama. More than 64 percent of voters – including 56 percent of Democrats, 67 percent of Republicans and an overwhelming 71 percent of independents – said Congress is doing “poor.”

“Only fair” captured another 16.4 percent of the voters, and excluding those who remained unsure, not even 1 in 10 ranked Congress’ work “good” or “excellent.”

“It is true that Obama’s approval numbers are much better than Congress, but in running against Congress, he risks giving his Republican opponent an opening to rise above that political food fight and inspire voters to make a change,” Wenzel said.

“In other words, if the Republican presidential candidate can successfully triangulate between Obama and Congress, that candidate could benefit as the only positive alternative in a sea of negativity. Remember that the American electorate has not changed. They still hunger for a version of the hope and change that Obama offered four years ago, but this time they will demand substance behind the promises,” he said.

“If there is any good news in this survey for Obama, it would be that it appears his political base is coming back to him. Among the very liberal, or progressive, Americans, about four out of five give him positive job marks. But among mainline liberals, that number falls to two out of three. While these voters might not vote for the Republican challenger for president, they are clearly lacking enthusiasm toward Obama and may well be harder to turn out at the polls next November,” Wenzel said.

(This story was written by Bob Unruh of WorldNetDaily.com)

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Leaders Form Committee to Help Licking County Park District

DECEMBER 16, 2011 - (Reprinted from the Newark Advocate – Newark, Ohio) – A group of Licking County leaders attended the Licking Park District’s special meeting Wednesday to show support for the district’s upcoming levy.

Members of Citizens for Parks, Paths, and Trails, a new ballot initiative committee to support the March levy attempt, presented the districts board with a plan for the upcoming campaign.

If passed, the district’s five-year, 0.25-mill levy would cost the owner of a $100,000 home $7.65 per year.

The group was formed to organize, fund and promote the district’s levy campaign, said Rick Platt, president and CEO of the Heath-Newark-Licking County Port Authority and vice chairman of the committee.

Led by Rob Montagnese, president and CEO of Licking Memorial Health Systems, the committee includes representatives from Park National Bank and First Federal Savings.

“This is something that’s been brewing for a while,” Platt said. “This committee felt like it’s now time to come together and support this ballot issue.”

The committee’s first task was to determine how people viewed the district.

People for Parks, a political action committee that has supported the district for many years, donated money to Citizens for Parks, Paths and Trails, which the group used to commission a phone survey, said Bethany Lewis, a communications specialist for Park National Bank and a member of the committee.

The survey, conducted by Wenzel Strategies, found 86 percent of the 804 voters polled described parks, bike paths and trails as important assets. The survey also found 58 percent of the voters surveyed said they would support the levy attempt, Platt said.

“If the election were held when this poll was taken, this ballot issue (would be) a winner,” Platt told the board.

But encouraging survey results don’t mean the committee can take it easy, Platt said. They need to have a strong message.

The committee’s message will stress the importance of the levy to sustain the parks, trails and paths in Licking County, Lewis said. If it passes, it will help the district perform needed maintenance, restore programing and make future improvements, she said.

“The challenge is to connect what the district provides with the concepts of quality of life and health,” she said. “If we can make this connection, the votes will come.”

The best way to spread this message is to educate the public, she said. The committee has redesigned the district’s logo and website and is working on a brochure about the campaign.

Members of the committee will reach out to the public to talk about the district and the levy.

“The more information people get, the more favorable they will be,” she said.

With early voting starting at the end of January, the campaign needs to move quickly, Platt said. The committee will need help from voters and special interest groups to make the campaign a success.

“If people value parks, paths and trails, then it’s time to support it with this ballot issue,” he said.

Park board member Ed Bohren said he was encouraged by the survey results and was grateful to have the committee leading the levy campaign.

“It is exciting to have leaders in the community step up and support a park system that has so much potential to be great,” he said.

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Americans Pick “TEA PARTY” over “Occupy” Protesters

DECEMBER 16, 2011 - (REPRINTED FROM WorldNetDaily.com) – Registered voters nationwide are deeply divided over he “grassroots” movements that have erupted in the United States – the TEA Party that seeks a return to a more Coonstitutional, limited government and the current “Occupy” protesters who demand higher taxes on the “wealthy” for distribution to others.

But a new poll indicates that more Americans by a significant margin believe the tea party will have a bigger and longer impact on the nation.

The poll by public-opinion research and media consulting company Wenzel Strategies. was conducted Dec. 5-7 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.26 percentage points.

“The tea party political movement that sprang up during the two years of the Obama administration is seen in a more positive light than the recently formed left-leaning Occupy Wall Street movement and is more likely to have a long-term impact on the American political landscape,” said an analysis by Fritz Wenzel, chief of Wenzel Strategies.

“Nearly half – 46 percent – said they think the tea party is more likely to have a long-term impact on American politics, compared to 28 percent who said the Occupy Wall Street movement will be the group that will make a lasting mark,” he said.

“Not surprisingly, Democrats were more likely to think the Occupy movement will be more impactful, while Republicans think the tea party is more likely to influence U.S. politics. But among independents, the tea party is seen as a much more influential movement, as 48 percent of independents think the tea party will be more important, compared to 29 percent who predicted the Occupy movement would play that role,” Wenzel said.

“While women were nearly evenly split over which group will be more influential over the long haul, twice as many men said they think the tea party will have the staying power as said the Occupy movement would be more influential,” Wenzel’s analysis continued.

“The tea party is seen as a much more positive influence on the country, compared to the Occupy movement. While 55 percent said they see the tea party as positive and healthy for America, just 40 percent said the same thing about the Occupy movement.”

He said the tea party also won higher favorability marks from adults nationwide, as 46 percent said they have a favorable opinion of the overall TEA Party movement, compared to 37 percent who said they held a favorable opinion of the Occupy movement.

“If these two movements end up clashing in next year’s elections, this new survey indicates the conservative TEA Party group will win the day, given their higher level of favorability and support,” Wenzel said.

“It also helps that local TEA Party movements never disrupted community life in many city centers across the country, and never left tons of filth spread across public and private meeting areas. And the TEA Party group never faced the problems with theft, drug use, sex crimes, police clashes and even death that have come to mark the Occupy movement,” he said.

The poll showed that Democrats and Republicans were virtually inverted in their responses to questions relating to the two movements. For example, on the question of whether the tea party was a spontaneous development, or whether the events were “organized by Big Business,” Democrats voted 51.8 percent to 26.4 percent for being organized by Big Business. Members of the GOP, however, voted 55.6 percent to 28.6 percent for being spontaneous.

The difference in most results came from independents, who on that question said by a 42 percent to 37 percent margin that the events were spontaneous.

Similar results were reported on other questions on the issue, but the impact of the independents was greater on some questions. On the question of the impact on American politics, for example, 48 percent of independents picked the tea party, while 29 percent picked Occupy.

(This story written by Robert Unruh of WorldNetDaily.com)

VOTERS: Yes, Mr. Obama, You Are Killing the Economy!

DECEMBER 14, 2011 (Reprinted from WORLDNETDAILY.COM) – For years, Barack Obama has diverted attention from his own economic decisions by blaming his predecessor, George W. Bush, for the nation’s financial woes, from deficits to debts to taxes to Medicare and Medicaid spending.

But that strategy has reached the end of its effectiveness, according to a new poll that reveals more people blame Obama for the failed state of the economy now than blame Bush.

A new poll from the public-opinion research and media consulting company Wenzel Strategies shows that 22.3 percent of registered voters say Obama is the “one person” most responsible for the nation’s continuing economic troubles.

To the same question, 19.1 percent said George W. Bush. But critical to the coming 2012 election will be the fact that of the independents, on whose votes elections often are decided, nearly 23 percent blame Obama and only 15.5 percent blame Bush. The independents put in second place members of Congress, which is half controlled by Democrats, the poll revealed, ahead of Bush.

Pollster Fritz Wenzel pointed out the scenarios that the White House is facing because of the thinking of the American public.

“Because blame of the Congress is split equally between the Democrats who lead the Senate and Republicans who lead the U.S. House, Obama’s efforts to blame Congress for all of the problems facing the country will backfire by at least 50 percent,” Wenzel said.

“Obama’s current campaign strategy could appear to be particularly selfish, having the ironic effect of killing his support among fellow Democrats in Congress, who will no doubt resent his efforts to sell them out to save his own political skin,” he added.

“At the very least, with twice as many Democratic seats than Republican seats up for grabs [in] next year’s Senate elections, this Obama strategy may well assure that Democrats lose control of the Senate, and is unlikely to result in a Democratic takeover in the U.S. House,” he said.

The poll was conducted Dec. 5-7 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.26 percentage points.

The poll showed that 22.3 percent of registered voters (35.7 percent of Republicans and 22.9 percent of independents) blame Obama as the most responsible for the current economic conditions. A little more than 19 percent blame Bush and 18.3 percent blame Congress.

The poll shows 11.5 percent blame the Democratic Congress of 2009, 11.2 percent blame Wall Street and 10.1 percent blame the U.S. House. Trailing was the Democrat-led U.S. Senate.

“Finally, he is the one now blamed more than any other for the current miserable state of the economy,” Wenzel said.

The poll revealed that those in the lowest earning bracket split the blame between Bush and Obama equally, but every other bracket pinned the bigger share of the blame on Obama.

Interestingly, those “very liberal” participants blamed Obama more (14.1 percent) than either those in the “liberal” (4.1 percent) or “moderate” (6.5 percent) categories.

To the question about whether poll participants believe the United States is going in the right direction, only 23.1 percent said yes.

“There is no way around it – these are terrible numbers. Fewer than one in four Americans feel things are headed in the right direction. And it’s been this way for many months now, which is a serious danger sign for the White House because opinions like this are like cement – the longer they remain unchanged, the more set they become in the minds of voters, and the more difficult they are to change,” Wenzel said.

“The real problem for President Obama stems from the negative view that independents hold about the current state of affairs in the U.S. Just 13 percent of independents think things are headed in the right direction – a number so far below where Obama needs it to be to win re-election that the situation may already be hopeless,” Wenzel said.

A full 74.9 percent of independents believe America is on the wrong track, trailing the 85 percent of the Republicans by only a little. Only 12 percent of independents and 7 percent of Republicans think the nation is on the right track.

Among those who described themselves as “very liberal,” more than one-third (37.3 percent) said the nation is on the wrong track. That opinion rose in every other category (liberal, moderate, conservative, very conservative).

Obama’s efforts also were rejected by every race category (white, black, Hispanic, Asian-other), men and women, and all regions of the country, including a 66 percent to 25 percent rejection in the Obama-friendly East.

This story was written by Bob Unruh of WorldNetDaily.com.

THE RON PAUL FACTOR-ORGANIZATION AND PRINCIPLE COULD YIELD PAUL VICTORY IN IOWA

DECEMBER 6,2011-NATIONAL REVIEW ONLINE: Representative Ron Paul rarely makes news, and his candidacy is frequently ignored by Beltway reporters. But headlines, his aides say, are overrated. In fact, the Texas Republican’s low-key autumn was strategic. As Paul’s competitors stumbled and sparred, he amassed a small fortune for his campaign and built a strong ground operation. And, with January fast approaching, his team is ready to surprise the political world and sweep the Iowa Caucuses.

“This was a movement when he first started running in 2008,” says Trygve Olson, a senior Paul adviser. “Now it’s turned into a highly professionalized campaign, but the energy from that last run is still there, and at the heart of what’s keeping up his momentum.”

The latest polls back up that confidence. In the influential Des Moines Register poll published over the weekend, Paul placed second. Newt Gingrich, the former House speaker, captured 25 percent of likely Iowa GOP voters, but Paul garnered 18 percent, two points ahead of Mitt Romney, who in 2008 placed second in the caucuses.

If Paul wins Iowa, the upset could upend what many politicos say is a two-man race between Gingrich and Romney. According to state GOP insiders, a Paul victory is a real possibility. In background conversations, many say Paul is much stronger than outside observers believe, with deep and wide support among a frustrated electorate. With Herman Cain’s departure from the race, operatives see Paul potentially collecting a quarter of caucus attendees.

“Ron Paul is definitely for real out here,” says Tim Albrecht, the communications director for Iowa governor Terry Branstad, who has not endorsed any GOP candidate. “He is going to get 18 percent in the caucuses no matter what. If there’s a snowstorm, he’ll probably win, since he has such dedicated, passionate supporters. The question is whether he can move higher than that.”

Paul, for his part, thinks that he can close in on Gingrich, who has seen a recent bump in both state and national polls. “We’re getting pretty close to it being within the margin of error,” Paul told CNN on Sunday. “I think we continue to do what we’re doing. We’ve had the flavors of the month up and down so far this campaign. I’d like to think of myself as the flavor of the decade.”

Indeed, Paul’s consistency, his strategists say, is integral to his strength, especially in Iowa, where GOP voters have shuffled through an array of favorites. “Iowans, after testing Bachmann, after testing Perry, after testing Cain, and now Gingrich, are realizing that Ron Paul, all along, has been their candidate,” says Fritz Wenzel, Paul’s pollster. Unlike many primary fights, “this is becoming a race about principles,” he says, “and Ron Paul has stood up for true conservative principles for decades, not just in the last month.”

But campaign strategy, of course, has also played a major role in sustaining Paul’s poll numbers. The campaign combines a strong online presence, centered on volunteer organization, with prolific fundraising. Perhaps more important, however, is Paul’s “traditional” strategy in Iowa, which combines a heavy candidate presence with constant mailings and outreach.

“He’s run the most traditional caucus campaign of the year,” Albrecht says. “Multiple mailers, multiple ads, and multiple visits. Rick Perry has run ads, but hasn’t really visited. Mitt Romney has taken the shy approach, and Newt Gingrich hasn’t been here as often.”

“We’re following the traditional model because it works,” says Drew Ivers, the campaign’s Iowa chairman. “This is the fifth time I’ve chaired an Iowa campaign, and in this state, you can’t beat grassroots politics. The caucuses are like a business meeting. You don’t just come and vote; you go to participate. You need committed supporters; we have them.”

Steve Grubbs, who recently worked as Herman Cain’s Iowa director, has seen the enthusiasm for Paul up close. “I was driving down Interstate 80 two weeks ago and saw a hitchhiker carrying a Ron Paul sign. I didn’t pick him up, but I’m sure a Paul supporter gave him a ride,” he says. “I spot them everywhere, wearing their T-shirts and carrying signs.”

You’ll also find thousands of Ron Paul backers on the web — on message boards and on social-networking sites — talking about Paul and his criticism of U.S. foreign policy and the Federal Reserve. As Paul’s team invests in the ground game, it is taking care to intertwine its above-ground legwork with that web world. And it’s paying off, his advisers say, not only through donations, but in building a cohesive network of voters. An early example of its power came in August, when Paul nearly won the Ames straw poll, finishing a close second to Michele Bachmann.

“Ron Paul’s Internet operation is to Republicans in 2012 what Barack Obama’s Internet operation was to Democrats in 2007 and 2008,” Olson says. “It’s very grassroots and national, with thousands of very active supporters who spread the message in every state. That energy is the undercurrent to what’s happening on the ground, where people are going person to person.”

Still, even with the top-tier showing in Iowa polls and recognition by Iowa operatives of their on-the-ground prowess, Paul’s advisers aren’t taking anything for granted. In coming weeks, “Ron Paul is going to be living part-time in Iowa,” says Dimitri Kesari, Paul’s deputy campaign manager. The entire focus will be on coordinating turnout and stoking enthusiasm. Over 500 college students, for example, will move to Iowa over the holidays to participate in an initiative called “Christmas Vacation with Ron Paul.”

“He’s a different kind of candidate,” Kesari acknowledges, a “highly organized outsider.” But in January, he could also be a winner. And Iowans, at least, wouldn’t be surprised.

— Robert Costa is a political reporter for National Review.

Revolt! Now Even Democrats Displeased With Obama as Nominee

November 7, 2011- The newest poll about the 2012 presidential election says oone-third of Democrats and independents who lean to the left side of the field are unhappy with Barack Obama as the party’s standard-bearer and are looking for some new faces to enter the race. The startling results are from the newest WND/Wenzel Poll conducted by Wenzel Strategies.  The telephone survey was conducted Oct. 22-25, and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.

Responding to a question about how satisfied they are with Obama as the nominee, only 55 percent said they were very satisfied. Another 24 percent said they were somewhat satisfied, but that group apparently started falling away quickly, because fully one-third (35 percent) said that would “prefer that someone else enter the race” for the nomination.

It revealed some key demographics where Obama is failing to convince voters of his value.

“Among Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents, just 79 percent said they are satisfied with Barack Obama as their standard bearer in the presidential race, which is a startling finding,” said Fritz Wenzel, chief of Wenzel Strategies.

“This means the incumbent president is unable to get one of every five voters that should be solidly in his political corner. Just a little more than half – 55 percent – said they were ‘very satisfied’ with Obama,” he said.
“Obama’s problem is with independents who are inclined to support the Democratic ticket, as just 53 percent said they are satisfied with Obama,” he said. “But the news gets worse for Obama, as 35 percent said someone else should enter the primary race against Obama, including half of Democrat-leaning independents.

“And among a demographic group that should be rock solid for Obama – Democratic voters under age 30 – 59 percent said they would prefer Obama to get a challenge for his party’s nomination.”

The attitude of support for Obama was revealed in the fact that 34.5 percent of the respondents said they weren’t even sure who should challenge Obama.

The largest camp, nearly 44 percent, said Obama should be challenged by Hillary Clinton, and more than nine percent said the vice president, Joe Biden, should try to kick his boss out of office.

Other names that were suggested, mostly with only nominal support, included Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi, Andrew Cuomo, Ralph Nader, Jerry Brown and Donald Trump, who was the only name also mentioned as a desired candidate on the Republican side.

“The overwhelming choice for the role of challenger is very clear, as 44 percent said they would like to see Secretary of State Hillary Clinton enter the race,” said Wenzel. “No one [else] of a group of possible candidates won double-digit support.”

The poll revealed that among Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents, about 19 percent said they simply were dissatisfied with Obama. In what could be a significant precursor, only 22 percent of the independents who said they lean Democratic reported being very satisfied with Obama.

A strong presence of dissatisfaction also was present among white Democrats (more than 25 percent were dissatisfied with Obama) and among Asian voters, where more than 19 percent were “not at all satisfied.”

In what could be another omen for Obama, his support faltered badly among Hispanics, where nearly 41 percent said they wanted another choice on the Democratic side.

And in another segment from which Obama got great support during 2008, 59.3 percent of those under age 30 said they wanted someone else to enter the race for the Democratic nomination.

* This is a reprint of a story that was written by Bob Unruh and which appeared first at WND.com.  See the original story here.

Cain Leads GOP Field in National Poll; Romney, Paul Closest Challengers

NOVEMBER 1, 2011 – The latest Wenzel Strategies telephone survey of likely voters nationwide shows that businessman Herman Cain continues to lead among Republican primary voters nationwide, as Mitt Romney slips a bit and Ron Paul remains in the solid double-digits.  The survey, commissioned by WorldNetDaily.com, shows that nearly one in three GOP voters remains unsure whom they would support as their presidential nominee.

The national telephone survey was conducted Oct. 22-25, 2011, just before reports surfaced of allegations that Cain once sexually harrassed two underlings while serving as the head of the National Restaurant Association back in the 1990s. Cain has denied that he harrassed the women, but acknowledged that the women did make such allegations.  The survey included  731 total interviews with respondents and carries a margin of error of +/- 3.60 percentage points. The margin of error in subsets is higher.

Cain, who has cultivated an “outsider” image in debate and campaign appearances as well as advertisements, wins 25% support from Republicans, but wins 33% support among Republican-leaning independent voters.  Romney wins 21% among Republicans, but just 9% among Republican-leaning independents.

Ron Paul captures 14% support among Republicans, and 7% among independents.

There is a huge gender gap for Cain. Among men, 34% support him, but only 17% of women would vote for him.  Given these latest allegations against him, it is unlikely his numbers among women will improve. Romney is the favorite – barely – among women, winning 20% support.

Ron Paul wins 13% from men and 10% among women.

Among women, Congresswoman Michele Bachmann wins just 4%, which must be a disappointment for her campaign, given that she has gone out of her way to try to attrack their support.

Cain holds a strong lead with 30% in the western United States, but wins 19% in the east, where he ties Romney for the lead. In the east, Ron Paul is a very close third with 17% – just one point behind.  Newt Gingrich wins 16% support in the west, placing third there, and also stands in third place in his home territory of the southern U.S., where he is supported by 13%.

WND/WENZEL POLL: Palin Would Shake Up Even Democratic Party Presidential Primary

REPRINTED FROM WORLDNETDAILY.COM – SEPT. 30, 2011 – Former Alaska Governor and 2008 vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin has said the 2012 presidential election would be an out-of-the-box event.  But just what did she mean? 

Voters will eventually find out, presumably. But just in case her “out of the box” means something as surprising as her challenging Barack Obama in a Democratic Party presidential primary, Fritz Wenzel of Wenzel Strategies included that scenario in his  newest poll on the 2012 presidential election.

Wenzel: Obama In Trouble In Ohio

Aug. 15, 2011 – By Kate Harvard-THE WEEKLY STANDARD - In 2008, Barack Obama won nine states that George W. Bush won in 2004. According to the latest polls and the assessments of seasoned observers, it is going to be tough for him to win them again. Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Indiana, North Carolina, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and Iowa are the red states that turned blue in 2008.

Obama has fallen behind in some of them and is running about even with Republicans in others. Where Obama is ahead, his lead is shrinking, and where he’s matched up against lesser-known GOP hopefuls, his small leads are hardly a show of strength. His approval ratings are sinking everywhere: Even where he beats a Republican challenger, voters in these states don’t like the job he’s doing.

If the president wins every state he won last time save these nine, he will be 24 electoral votes short of the 270 he needs to win a second term. Here’s the outlook 15 months before the 2012 election:

n Obama’s recent numbers in the key state of Florida (29 electoral votes) suggest he’ll have a hard time here. According to a Sunshine State News poll in July, only 38 percent of Floridians approve of the job the president is doing, and 54 percent disapprove. 

n Ohio (18 electoral votes) would be next on the list of “must-wins”—but it’s not locked up. A Quinnipiac poll from July shows Obama’s disapproval among Ohio voters at 50 percent, while only 46 percent approve. Of the state’s independent bloc, only 40 percent say that Obama deserves reelection.

Fritz Wenzel, a Republican pollster from the state, says that Ohioans believed Obama when he ran as a moderate and are disappointed that his policies turned out to be on the left. “Governor Ted Strickland .  .  . turned left as soon as he was elected, [and] voters kicked him to the curb in 2010,” Wenzel says.

The Quinnipiac poll still shows Obama beating Romney by 4 points, and both Bachmann and Perry by more than 10 points. But a record 58 percent of Ohioans disapprove of the president’s handling of the economy. Ohio senator Rob Portman says that a candidate who challenges the president on jobs and the economy can win his state.

n Obama will have an even tougher job in Virginia (13 electoral votes). The state, which Obama won by 6 points in 2008, is now split 48 percent to 48 percent on his performance in office, with 4 percent undecided. That’s good news for Republicans in a state where they have typically won presidential elections.

n North Carolina (15 electoral votes) and Indiana (11 electoral votes) also appear unlikely to go blue again. In 2008, Obama won them by scant margins, 0.4 points and 0.9 points, respectively, and now those leads have disappeared. The latest polls show Obama flat out losing in both. 

In Indiana, Obama loses to an unnamed Republican by double digits, getting 35 percent to 46 percent, according to a recent Bellwether poll. Obama is doing poorly because Hoosiers are used to “fiscal prudence” at the state level, says Ryan Streeter of ConservativeHome USA. “Governor Mitch Daniels is popular in Indiana because he has put the state’s budget in order. .  .  . Obama has made America’s fiscal condition worse and alienated ordinary people along the way.”

In North Carolina, a Civitas poll has Rick Perry winning by 3 points. “Obama is falling like a rock” in the state, says Marc Rotterman, a Republican consultant. Rotterman is sure that “2008 was an aberration. .  .  .  [The president] will not carry North Carolina in 2012.”

n Out west, Romney and Obama are practically tied. In Nevada (6 electoral votes), Obama leads Romney by a single point, 47-46 percent, according to the left-leaning firm Public Policy Polling. While this is good news for the president (in April the same poll showed Obama losing to Romney by 3 points), only 47 percent of the state’s voters approve of the president’s work. The right challenger could make headway.

n In New Mexico (5 electoral votes), Obama’s approval rating is at 50 percent, a decline of 5 points since February—and among independents, the decline is 11 points. He carried the state by 15 points in 2008, but “Barack Obama will not sell as well” in 2012, says Allen Weh, former New Mexico Republican state chairman. While the race is still uncertain, Weh asserts that Obama will be “running uphill” to retake the state in 2012. 

n And speaking of hills, Obama will “have a hard time” winning over the Rocky Mountain region, says Colorado governor John Hickenlooper, a Democrat.

Republican political consultant Walt Klein noted that Colorado (9 electoral votes) is where Obama signed the stimulus into law back in 2009, a fact Obama would probably like Coloradans to forget. They won’t, Klein said, because, as everywhere else, the economy is weak and unemployment is high.

Richard Wadhams, former state chairman of the Republican party, says Colorado will be “very competitive” in 2012. “Colorado voters go a third Republican, a third Democrat, and a third unaffiliated, and that third swings heavily.”

The swinging third consists largely of “socially liberal, fiscally conservative women in the Denver suburbs,” Wadhams says. These women “will vote for a Republican they disagree with on social issues if they think he’s prioritizing economic and fiscal issues.”

Consultants across these states agree: Make the election about money, and Obama’s on the ropes. But the president’s problems aren’t limited to the economy. There’s also an enthusiasm deficit among Democrats.

n In Iowa (6 electoral votes), voters are “unhappy,” said David Yepsen, director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute. “I’ve talked to a number of people on the left who say they worked for Obama in the caucuses but feel let down. .  .  . Iowa’s a pretty evenly balanced state and it doesn’t take much to tip it,” Yepsen said.

He added that Republicans will have “one hell of an organizational edge out of their organizing for the [Iowa] caucuses. They’ll have superior lists, good workers on the ground, and the networks identified to go dig out marginal supporters all over the state. Meanwhile, Democrats are sitting around in a funk.”

It’s clear the Republican presidential candidate has a reasonable chance to win in 2012. That doesn’t mean he or she will. The campaign—and especially the candidate—could make all the difference.

Kate Havard is an intern at The Weekly Standard.

Ron Paul Campaign Scoops Up Major GOP Pollster

JUNE 28, 2011 – Lake Jackson, Texas – (Businesswire) – The campaign of 2012 Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul has scored a major coup with the hiring on of heavyweight GOP pollster Fritz Wenzel, and his polling firm Wenzel Strategies, to run its polling operations.

“I am very proud and excited to be a part of the Ron Paul presidential team,” Wenzel said. “He has long stood strong for the core principles that have made out country great and have made the Republican Party great when they heeded them.”

“What makes Ron Paul such a strong candidate is his willingness to stand on principle, which has attracted more people to his message, to the pont that the other candidates are now taking up his issues. At a time when our country is in great peril, voters are looking for a candidate who will turn to and rely on the wisdom of the Constitution, and there is no better student of that document than Ron Paul,” Wenzel continued.

About Wenzel Strategies:

Wenzel Strategies is an Ohio-based firm headed by Fritz Wenzel. The firm has political, media, business, government, and non-profit clients nationwide. In the 2010 election cycle, it polled dozens of important races across the country, including for the successful Rand Paul campaign for U.S. Senate from Kentucky. It has also polled several races for Jim DeMint’s Senate Conservatives Fund and various congressional races. In addition to polling, Wenzel Strategies provides clients with strategic communications consultation.

For more information on Congressman Ron Paul’s Presidential Campaign visit www.RonPaul2012.com.